Research & Analysis
Market structure, seasonality, and trading edge — quantified.
Seasonals
August Second Half: The Bear Market Myth vs. 16 Years of /ES Data
Everyone fears the back half of August. The base rate says 68% of the time, you're leaving money on the table by hiding.
Jul 29, 2026
4 min read
Seasonals
September: The One Month That's Actually Bearish — But Not for the Reason You Think
September has a 50% win rate in /ES futures but a -0.78% average return. The edge is in asymmetry, not direction.
Jul 29, 2026
5 min read
Seasonals
July 4th Week: 81% Win Rate in /ES Futures (2010–2025)
How the holiday calendar creates one of the most consistent seasonal edges in S&P 500 futures
Jun 30, 2026
7 min read